Showing posts with label President. Show all posts
Showing posts with label President. Show all posts

OPEN LETTER TO MY REPUBLICAN FRIENDS




Dear Republicans,
Although no longer resident in the United States, my wife and I follow the news closely. We do so by faithfully scanning internet sites that aggregate news and opinion. We believe that this gives us a broad view of current events from a variety of perspectives since Flipboard, for instance, draws from sites as diverse as Fox News and Huffington Post, CNN and Al Jazeera and Business Insider and Forbes. And every November, we vote.

My point? I’m at arm’s length from the hurly-burly of the 24-hour news cycle but I’m still a reasonably knowledgeable news junkie. I am aware of the outlier sites, the ‘alt right’ and ‘progressive’ sites that claim to be presenting the real skinny on current events. I just don’t pay them much mind. Take my opinions for what they are worth but understand that they are the product of serious thought and not from having drunk someone else’s Kool-Aid. 

Trump is my President just as GWB was my President and Obama was yours. I say this even though Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016 both lost the popular vote. I say this not because I think that Trump’s election win was illegitimate. I say this because I am tired of hearing Republicans talking about the will of the people. As of today, 2 million more people voted for Hillary than voted for Trump. The will of the people has been thwarted by a Constitutional compromise reached over 200 years ago for reasons that had nothing to do with protecting the democratic process and a great deal to do with keeping slave-holding states in the union. 

And speaking of losing the popular vote, where is the consistency in claiming that you lost the popular vote due to massive voter fraud, then damning Stein in a series of late night tweets for calling for a recount in the closest battleground states? And speaking of late night tweets, if SNL skits and actors speaking to his Vice President from a Broadway stage enrage Trump, wait until he attends a G12 summit and real heavyweights get on his case. 

But far worse, Trump is blaming the media for ‘inciting’ protest marches. He’s called in media bigwigs to excoriate them. After using the media as a puppet to provide hundreds of millions of dollars of free publicity, the worm turns. And we know what sort of leaders around the world, as their first acts in office, attempt to cow or muzzle a free press.

Trump continues to make it known that he doesn’t want the US to be spending money to address climate change at the same time that he claims to understand the importance of the availability of clean, potable water. It’s hard to reconcile those two positions. How do you protect the southern Florida aquifer from salt water incursion without addressing rising ocean levels? How do you secure potable water for the American Southwest without doing what’s necessary to ameliorate atmospheric heating conditions that have led to severe and persistent drought? And how will Pence, a notorious denier of climate change, effect Trump’s thinking?

And how can you refuse national security briefings and tell Pakistani’s head of state over the phone that he’s a terrific guy? 

So while I am willing to give Trump a chance, I am not encouraged. He has a steep learning curve to climb. He needs to demonstrate the seriousness due the Presidency.

Let’s see if the equity markets move as high as they moved under Obama. Let’s see if the dollar strengthens against the euro even half as much as it did under Obama. Let’s see if the annual deficit is reduced by the same measure and as inexorably as it has been reduced under Obama. Let’s see if he builds a wall and makes Mexico pay for it.

And for all the fear of terrorism on our shores, let’s see if the record under Obama of fewer Americans annually dying from terrorism than dying from having appliances fall on them remains intact.

Or will Trump follow the legacies of his Republican predecessors. GWB was President when the worst recession since the Great Depression began as measured by decline in GDP. Eisenhower was President at the beginning of the second worst. Nixon was President at the beginning of the third worst. Reagan was President at the beginning of the fourth worst. Republicans all. Now Trump…

I’ll be watching. I won’t be the only one.

Affectionately,
Ira


US PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS - MARCH 2016

RECAP
As those who follow my scribblings know, I have been observing American politics from afar and am often asked by my Brit and French friends to explain the goings on in the American Presidential primaries. So I have been making monthly predictions on the status of the US Presidential race since July of last year. I update each month but include my original predictions so that you can judge for yourself just how silly you've been wasting your time following me. 

DEMOCRATS
Bernie has shown surprising strength but he apparently failed to win a single primary this past Tuesday and the demographics are a headscratcher. Why does Hillary command a higher percentage of the vote of people of color than even Obama did? Are they voting against their own self-interests? Are they rewarding past behavior that they view as more aligned with their concerns? Just what draws the base to Hillary? And make no mistake, it's the Democratic Party base that votes for her - people of color, women, older voters. Bernie's no dummy. He knows that if the base doesn't come out in full force during the general election, Democrats lose.

Should he win the nomination, which appears less likely after Tuesday's across the board losses, Bernie has to hope that the Republican nominee energizes the Drmocratic base in a way that he has not managed to energize them so far. Otherwise, McGovern comes to mind...

Why is Warren still the wild card after all these months? Because her endorsement of either Hillary or Bernie might be a game changer.

March, 2016
Favorite: Hillary
Long Shot: Bernie
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton


REPUBLICANS
Trump. Trump. Trump. I am still not convinced. Even this past Tuesday, he failed to get 50% of the vote in a single primary. My predictions may be overly influenced by my wish for my ideal solution, as one talking head described the seeming inability of the community of talking heads to predict Trump's rise. But I still just can't bring myself to believe it. It's just too wacky. I mean, at some point doesn't the fact sink in that the guy who wants to make America great again has led four companies with his name on them into bankruptcy?

As of today, it seems that the best hope for those in the Republican Party who are opposed to The Donald is a brokered convention. But the next in line appears to be Cruz and it's hard to believe that a party that couldn't hold it's nose and nominate The Donald would agree to hold its nose and nominate Ted "Green Eggs and Ham" Cruz.

Rubio? Blew it and gone. Kasich? Too little, too late.

Romney? Deja vu all over again...

March, 2016
Favorite: Trump
Long Shot: Kasich
Wild Card: Romney
Prediction: Cruz

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - JULY, 2015

Political pundits make predictions. Then they change their minds. Then, at the last minute, they change their minds again. And the only way that you'll know whether they were right or wrong at any point during the process is if Jon Stewart (or the replacement guy) does a piece about it on The Daily Show.

I'm going to handicap the American Presidential primaries and election. In the primaries, I'll call the Favorite, the Long Shot, the Wild Card, and my Prediction. And at the bottom of each segment, Republican and Democrat, I'll repeat my initial take on those four categories so you can rate my ability to prognosticate. I'll post about every month until the winners have emerged.

DEMOCRATS
It won't be a coronation but it's hard to bet against Hillary. Is the country ready to elect Bernie, a self-proclaimed Socialist? I don't think so. Not after eight years of a Communist like Obama. (That's sarcasm, in case you missed it.) Can a dark house, like O'Malley or Webb, match Hillary's money and name recognition? I don't think so. Is there a better political pro to have in your corner than Bill? I don't think so. Am I going to bet against Hillary? I don't think so.

I don't dismiss Bernie lightly. He strikes a chord. But I'm with Barney Frank, a guy with certified Progressive credentials. There's really not that much space between Hillary and Bernie, Barney says. I believe him. He's worked with both for years. Therefore, the inevitable animus of a primary fight will only hurt the Democratic Party and its chance to elect the next President. Without primary opposition, Humphrey beats Nixon and, maybe, Romney beats Obama.

The Wild Card is, of course, Elizabeth Warren. She says that she's not running. If she did, she'd certainly suck the air out of Bernie's candidacy. She'd be the female alternative to Hillary for women that Fiona will never be. And you have to admire a woman with the flexibility to be a Texas Republican in the 20th Century and a Massachusetts Progressive in the 21st. But I believe Warren. I don't think that she'll run. This time.

O'Malley and Webb are good men. Chafee has an interesting history. Biden is...Biden. And there are others. But I'm going to have to live with this for the next several months. So...

Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
While the Democrats present a clear front-runner in Hillary, the Republicans can barely hold their noses long enough to proclaim Jeb Bush their favorite. Hillary may have baggage, but Jeb has steamer trunks - his grandfather, his father, his brother, and his conservative credentials will all be dragged into the mix. (If you don't know Grand Dad's story, you really need to do your research. It's fascinating in the way that the Kennedy story is fascinating. That is to say, cringe worthy.)

It should be noted that, as is the case with Hillary, in addition to name recognition Jeb has the second of the most important pieces of the puzzle in hand...money. In fact, he has raised almost twice as much money as Hillary for his campaign and his Super PAC combined.

After Jeb, anybody who claims insight into the Republican field is blowing smoke. Could Scott Walker or John Kasich be the next Mike Dukakis? Is Rubio too young? Huckabee too Christian? Cruz too crazy? Paul too Paul?

Trump? Look, The Donald is just smart enough to understand that he doesn't stand a chance of being nominated. But any publicity is good publicity, especially when you can solicit contributions from the average Joe to pay for it. Ben Carson? He's creating buzz but, just as the country is not ready to elect a men who calls himself a Socialist, so the country is not ready for two black Presidents in a row.

Don't forget, Rick Santorum was the last man standing against Romney in the last go round and he actually won eleven primaries. And, since Huckabee is the most likely alternative of the Christian Right, the two of them combine as my Long Shots. I have to admit that it's just too early to choose between (among?), in order of likelihood, Walker and Kasich and Graham and Cruz and Rubio and Paul...I promise that I'll narrow this one down in future.

Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

IT'S ROMNEY


While I was on vacation, Santorum failed to close the deal. He was too scary even for the Republicans. Of course, saying that Romney closed the deal may be overstating the case. His inability to garner more than 50% of primary voters in any state until the sideshow geeks were the only opposition left standing would be troubling except for the fact that Republicans are herd animals.

Herd animals stand on the sidelines while adversaries for top dog duke it out, then fall in line docilely behind the winner. It would seem that the herd scenario is being played out by the Republicans, but there may be a caveat or two to consider. Can Romney run away from Romneycare, from the perception that he’s just another effete, privileged Massachusetts liberal in Tea Party clothing? Will the Tea Party rally back to him? Does the Tea Party matter anymore?

Don’t be silly. Of course the Tea Party matters. If nothing else, the Tea Party has pulled the Republican Party hard right and taken the national conversation along with it.

Anybody but Obama. That will be the subtext – and in some cases the explicit message – to every bit of advertising, every speech, every Fox News commentary for the next five months.

Will it be enough? Predictions will have to wait just a bit longer. Right now? Too close to call.

BACK FROM VACATION

Howdy Folks!

I'm back from my sojourn in Mexico and Texas, I'm organizing my thoughts and I'm writing away. You'll hear about the Mexican silver-mining town of Guanajuato; about barbecue in Lockhart, Texas; about visiting a west Texas ranch; about my nephew's wedding party; and about anything else that strikes my fancy.

Stay tuned.

Laundry in Paradise

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