Thursday, March 17, 2016

US PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS - MARCH 2016

RECAP
As those who follow my scribblings know, I have been observing American politics from afar and am often asked by my Brit and French friends to explain the goings on in the American Presidential primaries. So I have been making monthly predictions on the status of the US Presidential race since July of last year. I update each month but include my original predictions so that you can judge for yourself just how silly you've been wasting your time following me. 

DEMOCRATS
Bernie has shown surprising strength but he apparently failed to win a single primary this past Tuesday and the demographics are a headscratcher. Why does Hillary command a higher percentage of the vote of people of color than even Obama did? Are they voting against their own self-interests? Are they rewarding past behavior that they view as more aligned with their concerns? Just what draws the base to Hillary? And make no mistake, it's the Democratic Party base that votes for her - people of color, women, older voters. Bernie's no dummy. He knows that if the base doesn't come out in full force during the general election, Democrats lose.

Should he win the nomination, which appears less likely after Tuesday's across the board losses, Bernie has to hope that the Republican nominee energizes the Drmocratic base in a way that he has not managed to energize them so far. Otherwise, McGovern comes to mind...

Why is Warren still the wild card after all these months? Because her endorsement of either Hillary or Bernie might be a game changer.

March, 2016
Favorite: Hillary
Long Shot: Bernie
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton


REPUBLICANS
Trump. Trump. Trump. I am still not convinced. Even this past Tuesday, he failed to get 50% of the vote in a single primary. My predictions may be overly influenced by my wish for my ideal solution, as one talking head described the seeming inability of the community of talking heads to predict Trump's rise. But I still just can't bring myself to believe it. It's just too wacky. I mean, at some point doesn't the fact sink in that the guy who wants to make America great again has led four companies with his name on them into bankruptcy?

As of today, it seems that the best hope for those in the Republican Party who are opposed to The Donald is a brokered convention. But the next in line appears to be Cruz and it's hard to believe that a party that couldn't hold it's nose and nominate The Donald would agree to hold its nose and nominate Ted "Green Eggs and Ham" Cruz.

Rubio? Blew it and gone. Kasich? Too little, too late.

Romney? Deja vu all over again...

March, 2016
Favorite: Trump
Long Shot: Kasich
Wild Card: Romney
Prediction: Cruz

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb

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