US PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS - FEBRUARY 2016

THE VOTING BEGINS
Iowa: This year, the Dems fought to a draw and the Pubs went with Cruz, the man that Pubs love to hate almost as much as Trump. So nothing was really settled. Bernie's insurgency appears real but this is Iowa, remember. Rubio's third place finish looked good until the next debate, but...Rubio's third place finish looked good until the next debate, but...Rubio's

New Hampshire: No surprise on the Democratic side. Comparing Bernie's win this year with Hillary's save against Obama eight years ago is just silly. Aren't Vermont and New Hampshire really the same state spelled differently? A Bernie loss would have been much more predictive than his win is. The Republicans made things interesting, though. The Donald got his one-third of the vote and it was enough to win. I still maintain that's his ceiling. Kasich was the one who took advantage of Rubio's missteps in the debate. Can he carry the mantle of sanity against the likes of Donald and Cruz? Maybe, but he'll need the centrist Republicans (if there are enough of them left) and the Rubio crowd to coalesce behind him in a hurry. And he'll need money. Speaking of money, Bush showed some strength as well, but he'll have to build on it. Being at the back of the lead pack is not enough.

DEMOCRATS
What does all of this mean? Not much. I'm certain that Hillary's people see South Carolina and the Southern Super Tuesday coming up as a chance to regain momentum. If we wake up March 2nd and Hillary isn't smiling, all bets are off. So why have I stuck with Hillary? Because, as I said last month, if it comes down to a smoke-filled room, Hillary has more cigar smokers in her pocket than Bernie.



February, 2016
Favorite: Toss Up
Long Shot: None Left
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
Trump? One-third of the Republican electorate will eventually punch his ticket back to New York while the remaining two-thirds decide on a sane person. Meanwhile, Rubio had his chance and may have blown it. Christie? Carson? Fiona? All on life support if they decide to stay. (As I write, Christie and Fiona have left the building.) That leaves Cruz (hated), Rubio (green), Kasich (Ohio wins Presidencies), and Bush (hanging around). Like the Democrats, Southern Super Tuesday may bring clarity.

Prediction? Well, Kasich has taken over the Long Shot role. He's rational (mostly), he's from Ohio, but does he have enough money and can he survive the South? Predicting Jeb? Really? Well, the electorate just might have shown a bit of moderation in New Hampshire. If you want moderate, Bush fits the bill...for a Republican.

February, 2016
Favorite: Toss Up
Long Shot: Kasich
Wild Card: Rubio
Prediction: Jeb

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - AUGUST, 2015

As John Oliver has said, there will be babies born before the 2016 Presidential election whose parents haven't even met yet. (There were babies born yesterday whose parents couldn't remember each other's first names, but this isn't about hook-up culture.) So this dive into prognostication is really just an exercise for the sake of exercise. But let's take it where it leads us.

DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders is the flavor of the month on the Democratic side of the aisle. Big crowds. BIG crowds. But let's not forget that Bernie has been in politics for awhile. He didn't decide to introduce himself in cities like Charleston, Birmingham, or Baton Rouge. He went out West. If a Progressive can't draw crowds in Seattle...


In the end, I think that Bernie has plateaued. Progressives were already stirred up, ready and waiting for Elizabeth Warren. Bernie gave them a candidate to coalesce around. Will he win over moderate and conservative Democrats who are Hillary's core? Not likely. Warren might. But she's holding firm.

Biden? Gore? (Gore, for fook sake?) I just don't see it. Yes, there are folks who are getting nervous about Hillary's numbers. I'm not yet. They've been beating her and Bill up for decades. All they've got for their troubles is a blue dress and a hummer. And nobody who wasn't a card-carrying Republican gave a damn.

August, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
The Donald is soaring. Does he have the stamina? Can he withstand the months and months of pure bullcrap that will come his way and not succumb to his inner demons and implode gloriously? I just don't believe that he can. He'll declare bankruptcy, write off his expenses, and contract for a new reality show.

Since I don't believe that Trump will be the last clown out of the car, that leaves me with the same lineup as last month. Folks will hold their noses and go with Jeb unless somebody comes out of the pack who appears to be a reasonable, electable alternative. As for the rest, Santorum can't seem to get traction against Huckabee for the hearts and minds of the religious right. Perry's gone and I think Rubio, Christie, and Paul are going. Cruz is still batshit crazy. And Fiona won't last once the light shines on her. So I've whittled things down a bit at the edges, but as with the Dems, the front runner remains.

August, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Kasich and Walker Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - JULY, 2015

Political pundits make predictions. Then they change their minds. Then, at the last minute, they change their minds again. And the only way that you'll know whether they were right or wrong at any point during the process is if Jon Stewart (or the replacement guy) does a piece about it on The Daily Show.

I'm going to handicap the American Presidential primaries and election. In the primaries, I'll call the Favorite, the Long Shot, the Wild Card, and my Prediction. And at the bottom of each segment, Republican and Democrat, I'll repeat my initial take on those four categories so you can rate my ability to prognosticate. I'll post about every month until the winners have emerged.

DEMOCRATS

It won't be a coronation but it's hard to bet against Hillary. Is the country ready to elect Bernie, a self-proclaimed Socialist? I don't think so. Not after eight years of a Communist like Obama. (That's sarcasm, in case you missed it.) Can a dark house, like O'Malley or Webb, match Hillary's money and name recognition? I don't think so. Is there a better political pro to have in your corner than Bill? I don't think so. Am I going to bet against Hillary? I don't think so.

I don't dismiss Bernie lightly. He strikes a chord. But I'm with Barney Frank, a guy with certified Progressive credentials. There's really not that much space between Hillary and Bernie, Barney says. I believe him. He's worked with both for years. Therefore, the inevitable animus of a primary fight will only hurt the Democratic Party and its chance to elect the next President. Without primary opposition, Humphrey beats Nixon and, maybe, Romney beats Obama.

The Wild Card is, of course, Elizabeth Warren. She says that she's not running. If she did, she'd certainly suck the air out of Bernie's candidacy. She'd be the female alternative to Hillary for women that Fiona will never be. And you have to admire a woman with the flexibility to be a Texas Republican in the 20th Century and a Massachusetts Progressive in the 21st. But I believe Warren. I don't think that she'll run. This time.

O'Malley and Webb are good men. Chafee has an interesting history. Biden is...Biden. And there are others. But I'm going to have to live with this for the next several months. So...

Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
While the Democrats present a clear front-runner in Hillary, the Republicans can barely hold their noses long enough to proclaim Jeb Bush their favorite. Hillary may have baggage, but Jeb has steamer trunks - his grandfather, his father, his brother, and his conservative credentials will all be dragged into the mix. (If you don't know Grand Dad's story, you really need to do your research. It's fascinating in the way that the Kennedy story is fascinating. That is to say, cringe worthy.)

It should be noted that, as is the case with Hillary, in addition to name recognition Jeb has the second of the most important pieces of the puzzle in hand...money. In fact, he has raised almost twice as much money as Hillary for his campaign and his Super PAC combined.

After Jeb, anybody who claims insight into the Republican field is blowing smoke. Could Scott Walker or John Kasich be the next Mike Dukakis? Is Rubio too young? Huckabee too Christian? Cruz too crazy? Paul too Paul?

Trump? Look, The Donald is just smart enough to understand that he doesn't stand a chance of being nominated. But any publicity is good publicity, especially when you can solicit contributions from the average Joe to pay for it. Ben Carson? He's creating buzz but, just as the country is not ready to elect a men who calls himself a Socialist, so the country is not ready for two black Presidents in a row.

Don't forget, Rick Santorum was the last man standing against Romney in the last go round and he actually won eleven primaries. And, since Huckabee is the most likely alternative of the Christian Right, the two of them combine as my Long Shots. I have to admit that it's just too early to choose between (among?), in order of likelihood, Walker and Kasich and Graham and Cruz and Rubio and Paul...I promise that I'll narrow this one down in future.

Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush