FIVE STUPID THINGS - MID JULY, 2016

FIVE STUPID THINGS may not be enough for the kind of week that it's been, but it's a start.

1. Democratic National Committee rules required that Bernie endorse Hillary so that his delegates could attend the convention. A real-life, actual friend of mine (pre Facebook) reposted a link to an article by some dodo...excuse me...rabid supporter of Bernie Sanders contending that if Bernie hadn't endorsed Hillary, his delegates couldn't have attended the Democratic convention. Having endorsed her, they can attend, there will be an outpouring of support for Bernie, and he will win the nomination through the sheer force of his righteous indignation.

You can't make this stuff up. Well, in fact, this particular dodo did make this stuff up.

2. May picks Boris to be the UK's ambassador to the world. That says it all. The sun has finally set on the British Empire.

3. Trump picks Pence, apparently in order to create a phallic penetration logo with a toilet paper reference. The Republican standard bearer has apparently decided that he can win without a majority of women, the LGBTQ community, or people of color. I'm pretty certain that there aren't enough pissed off white guys to make up the difference. We'll see.

4. In the wake of the tragedy in Nice, TIME Europe proclaimed that if we just start beating back Daesh, the recruitment of lone wolf terrorists will end because no one will want to be on the losing side. I presume that someone was actually paid for coming up with that analysis. Someone from the West. Someone who believes that terrorism against soft targets is about winning and losing. Someone who doesn't understand the Eastern concept of revenge. Someone who hasn't noticed that these lone wolf attacks have increased at the precise time that Daesh is being beaten back. Someone who doesn't recognize the letters I, R, and A. Where do I apply for the opportunity to get paid to write that kind of garbage?

5. After the horrendous killings of police officers this week, an official of the Cleveland police officers union has said that Obama has blood on his hands. Thus, in one quote to the media, we learn that an official representative of Cleveland's police officers is either an idiot or a racist. Probably both. On the other hand, this is the same guy who wants 'open carry' suspended for the Republican national convention. Maybe not so stupid after all...

BONUS: Melania Trump channels Michelle Obama in speech to the Republican convention. In my view, a wise move. She couldn't have picked a better role model. If only it wasn't so darn obvious.

US PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS - MARCH 2016

RECAP
As those who follow my scribblings know, I have been observing American politics from afar and am often asked by my Brit and French friends to explain the goings on in the American Presidential primaries. So I have been making monthly predictions on the status of the US Presidential race since July of last year. I update each month but include my original predictions so that you can judge for yourself just how silly you've been wasting your time following me. 

DEMOCRATS
Bernie has shown surprising strength but he apparently failed to win a single primary this past Tuesday and the demographics are a headscratcher. Why does Hillary command a higher percentage of the vote of people of color than even Obama did? Are they voting against their own self-interests? Are they rewarding past behavior that they view as more aligned with their concerns? Just what draws the base to Hillary? And make no mistake, it's the Democratic Party base that votes for her - people of color, women, older voters. Bernie's no dummy. He knows that if the base doesn't come out in full force during the general election, Democrats lose.

Should he win the nomination, which appears less likely after Tuesday's across the board losses, Bernie has to hope that the Republican nominee energizes the Drmocratic base in a way that he has not managed to energize them so far. Otherwise, McGovern comes to mind...

Why is Warren still the wild card after all these months? Because her endorsement of either Hillary or Bernie might be a game changer.

March, 2016
Favorite: Hillary
Long Shot: Bernie
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
Trump. Trump. Trump. I am still not convinced. Even this past Tuesday, he failed to get 50% of the vote in a single primary. My predictions may be overly influenced by my wish for my ideal solution, as one talking head described the seeming inability of the community of talking heads to predict Trump's rise. But I still just can't bring myself to believe it. It's just too wacky. I mean, at some point doesn't the fact sink in that the guy who wants to make America great again has led four companies with his name on them into bankruptcy?

As of today, it seems that the best hope for those in the Republican Party who are opposed to The Donald is a brokered convention. But the next in line appears to be Cruz and it's hard to believe that a party that couldn't hold it's nose and nominate The Donald would agree to hold its nose and nominate Ted "Green Eggs and Ham" Cruz.

Rubio? Blew it and gone. Kasich? Too little, too late.

Romney? Deja vu all over again...

March, 2016
Favorite: Trump
Long Shot: Kasich
Wild Card: Romney
Prediction: Cruz

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb

SAVAGING HILLARY - POLITICAL RANT

We met in 1970 or 1971. She was intense. A radical feminist. Rabidly anti-war. Pro Castro. A Progressive when it was dangerous rather than fashionable. When I talk about her as a friend, I am not talking about a Facebook friendship. I'm talking person to person, in the flesh friendship. Now though, we do interact mostly on Facebook. We are, after all, continents apart. She posts pictures of her kids, all growed up. I Like them. I post stories about our move to France. She Likes them.

She Shares posts from a group called Moderates for Bernie. I don't Like them and I don't like them. One post in particular got my goat. It's a picture of a pensive Martin Luther King. The caption reads, "Let me get this straight..I fought and died for the Black vote. And now a man who marched with me is going to lose to a woman who supported Goldwater because of the Black vote..."

Putting words in the mouth of a departed icon like King in support of a contemporary political candidate is simply despicable. It's disrespectful of both King and of civil political discourse in a jaw-dropping way. There are plenty of Black activists on the scene today who support Bernie. Use a real quote from one of them if you have the need to question the right of Black voters to make their own choices.

It's true. As a teenager in the early 1960s, Hillary was introduced to Goldwater's The Conscience of a Conservative by a high school teacher and became an admirer. I found the book interesting at the time, too. A learning experience. But by 1968, Hillary was volunteering for McGovern's campaign. After King's assassination, she organized a two-day strike at her college to support greater inclusion of minorities on staff and in the student body. And after college, she knocked on doors to register voters of color and agitated for the rights of women and children and migrant workers. Those communities remember those days and her work on their behalf. That's why they vote for her.

They were there and they remember and they vote.

Hatchet job artists like Limbaugh and Beck have led Republicans by the nose to the outer fringes of their party, to the outer fringes of decency, to Trump and Cruz. Are Progressives taking Democrats down the same road? Our political discourse deserves better.

End of rant...

HANDICAPPING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - JANUARY 2016

Anyone who claims to have this election figured out is delusional. I am not delusional. But I am reasonably well read and I know a modicum of history. That gives me a leg up over a large segment of the electorate. Yes, it does.


So after taking the month of December off to catch my breath, I'm back. Remember, after I announce my predictions for the month, I'll repeat the predictions that I made in the first of these posts in June of 2015.



DEMOCRATS
Has Clinton Fatigue finally set in? Has Bernie truly lit a spark that will catch electoral fire? The first three will answer those questions.

Iowa: Always interesting but seldom dispositive, Iowa picks the eventual candidate as often as not. In 2008, Obama and Huckabee won. Past winners include Tom Harkin, Dick Gephardt, and Uncommitted.

New Hampshire: A better record than Iowa, New Hampshire nonetheless has been won by the likes of Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart.

South Carolina: Newt Gingrich and John Edwards are past winners, but by this time the field has narrowed considerably.

What does all of this mean? Not much. One suspects that Bernie is hot to win the first two and Hillary sees South Carolina as a firewall. If that's how it shakes out, fireworks will abound throughout the rest of the campaign. And I've kept Warren in as the Wild Card because, assuming that Biden and Michelle don't run, Warren is the only Dem who could jump in at this late date with any chance of moving the needle. Why Hillary in the end? Because if it comes down to a smoke-filled room, Hillary has more cigar smokers in her pocket than Bernie.

January, 2016
Favorite: Toss Up
Long Shot: None Left
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
Trump? I still contend that he cannot and will not win the nomination. Few of those not already in his camp will be enticed to join. But with the possible exception of Jeb, the eventual runner-up to Trump will likely sweep up all of the other competitors' support.

Why Rubio? Why not Cruz? Because Cruz is only slightly less mental than Trump.






January, 2016
Favorite: Rubio
Long Shot: Cruz
Wild Card: Everybody else...
Prediction: Rubio

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb