Skip to main content

HANDICAPPING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - JANUARY 2016



Anyone who claims to have this election figured out is delusional. I am not delusional. But I am reasonably well read and I know a modicum of history. That gives me a leg up over a large segment of the electorate. Yes, it does.


So after taking the month of December off to catch my breath, I'm back. Remember, after I announce my predictions for the month, I'll repeat the predictions that I made in the first of these posts in June of 2015.



DEMOCRATS
Has Clinton Fatigue finally set in? Has Bernie truly lit a spark that will catch electoral fire? The first three will answer those questions.

Iowa: Always interesting but seldom dispositive, Iowa picks the eventual candidate as often as not. In 2008, Obama and Huckabee won. Past winners include Tom Harkin, Dick Gephardt, and Uncommitted.

New Hampshire: A better record than Iowa, New Hampshire nonetheless has been won by the likes of Pat Buchanan, Paul Tsongas and Gary Hart.

South Carolina: Newt Gingrich and John Edwards are past winners, but by this time the field has narrowed considerably.

What does all of this mean? Not much. One suspects that Bernie is hot to win the first two and Hillary sees South Carolina as a firewall. If that's how it shakes out, fireworks will abound throughout the rest of the campaign. And I've kept Warren in as the Wild Card because, assuming that Biden and Michelle don't run, Warren is the only Dem who could jump in at this late date with any chance of moving the needle. Why Hillary in the end? Because if it comes down to a smoke-filled room, Hillary has more cigar smokers in her pocket than Bernie.

January, 2016
Favorite: Toss Up
Long Shot: None Left
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton


REPUBLICANS
Trump? I still contend that he cannot and will not win the nomination. Few of those not already in his camp will be enticed to join. But with the possible exception of Jeb, the eventual runner-up to Trump will likely sweep up all of the other competitors' support.

Why Rubio? Why not Cruz? Because Cruz is only slightly less mental than Trump.






January, 2016
Favorite: Rubio
Long Shot: Cruz
Wild Card: Everybody else...
Prediction: Rubio

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

GRAND CAFE OCCITAN: RESTAURANT REVIEW

  We made our way to a new restaurant the other day, up toward the hills past La Liviniere in the small town of Felines-Minervois. None of our party had been there before, but a friend had visited and said that she'd enjoyed it. She's a vegetarian. First clue. Now don't get me wrong. I have no gripe with those who choose to go meatless. I understand the environmental concerns and I understand the horrors of factory farming. But I also understand that form follows function in the design of tools, in the design of appliances, and in the design of human teeth. Our incisors and canines did not develop over the course of hundreds of thousands of years to rend the flesh of a fresh-caught broccoli. We are omnivores by design, Darwinian design. And I enjoy eating omni. Enough preamble... I never went inside the Grand Cafe Occitan. A young lady who would be our server met us at the front door of the nicely pointed old stone house, leading us to a pebble-covered courtyard on the side

Kreuz Market vs. Smitty’s Market: Texas Barbecue in Lockhart

I was born and raised in New Jersey. I didn’t taste Texas barbecue until I was twenty-two years old. What the hell do I know about barbecue? And what could I add to the millions of words that have been written on the subject? Well, I know a bit about food. I’ve managed to check out a few of the finer joints in Texas – Sonny Bryan’s Smokehouse in Dallas, Joe Cotton’s in Robstown before the fire, the dear departed Williams Smokehouse in Houston, and the incomparable New Zion Missionary Baptist Church in Huntsville . So I can speak from a reasonably wide experience. This will not be a comprehensive discussion of the relative merits of Texas barbecue as opposed to the fare available in places like Memphis or the Carolinas. It’s simply a take on our recent visits to Lockhart and the relative merits of Smitty’s versus Kreuz from our point of view. I’ll get all over academic in a later post. On our way out to the ranch in Crystal City, we stopped at Smitty’s. You have to look

GRACE SLICK, BREXIT AGAIN, SELF CHECKOUT, AND MORE: #18

    GRACE SLICK I just listened again to Volunteers , the last Jefferson Airplane album with the 'classic' lineup. 1969. Perfect. Sometimes sloppy. Sometimes over dramatic. But perfect. And Grace Slick. Grace. Slick. Perfect. BREXIT & CONSERVATISM Except for the 30% or so who've drunk the Kool-Aid, can we all agree that Brexit is not working out as advertised? And that the Republican Party in the USofA has sold its soul to a cadre of authoritarians who think they are the true small-d-democrats but who don't want everybody to have a vote and won't abide by a vote that they don't like? How did it happen that, in the name of political conservatism, two countries put into power incompetent leaders financed by greedy elites? And I just read that Michael Gove thinks that Liz Truss is toast because her agenda has been shredded. Whose agenda has been shredded more thoroughly than Gove’s and why would any thinking person be interested in his opinions except to liste