Wednesday, September 16, 2015

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SEPTEMBER 2015

DEMOCRATS
Hillary gets one more month. Maybe just one. Have you folks in the States heard of Jeremy Corbyn? If you are into Bernie, check it out. Is it a good thing? I don't know. But it just may be a thing after all.

There is one change to my predictions from the previous two months. Bernie has sucked up all of the air available for Elizabeth Warren at the Leftest end of the spectrum. Biden, at least for the time being, takes her spot. I don't think he'll run. Is there enough fire in the belly? We'll see.

September, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Joe Biden
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
No changes from last month. I still find it difficult to believe that The Donald has the legs to last through the entire primary season. He's just too easily distracted. And we see some of the same interesting polling beginning to take shape on the Republican side as we saw during the last Presidential cycle. The Doctor is threatening The Donald. Could it possibly be that the Flavor of the Month Syndrome is setting in?

Huckabee? Well, like Santorum the last time, Huckabee is making a determined, all-out bid for the Christian fundamentalists. They are still a numerous slice of the base, they darn near led Santorum past Romney at the end, and therefore they are still a powerful force to be reckoned with.

And Jeb still has the name and the money and I don't see Kasich or Walker making the case that they are the stronger candidate. Maybe. We'll see.

September, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Kasich and Walker Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

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