BIDEN, HARRIS, TRUMP, OBAMA AND AMERICAN POLITICS 2024

I wouldn't be much of an American who blogs his opinions if I didn't chime in on the events of the past week or two in American politics. FULL DISCLOSURE: I believe Trump to be an existential threat to sanity and civility in public life. His picture appears in the OED in the definition of egotistical narcissist. Anyway, here are my quick takes:

* During the recent televised debate, Biden looked like a tired and deflated old man. Trump presented as a confident and unapologetic liar. In other words, both men came across true to their respective natures. 

* I'm 75 years old. I ain't what I used to be. The excuse that Biden was tired after flights and meetings just doesn't cut it. Presidents are not allowed to fail on the world stage at critical times because they are tired. Yes, we expect too much of the mere humans that we elect to that office. Tough cookies. That's the minimum requirement. When the phone rings at 2am, you'd better damn well be wide awake and ready to eat raw meat.

* Harris was the obvious choice. An open Democrat convention would have been a disaster. Uncontrolled chaos. Everybody who mattered understood that Harris was inevitable except, apparently, for the Obamas. If nothing else, that proves that Obama was never an executive type. A true executive makes reality-based decisions, even if their preference would be a different reality. Harris is the reality. Not acceding to that reality after 48 hours is either pettiness or delusion. Now, today, her election prospects are not an issue. Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their party. (By the way, that's not a quote about politics uttered by some wag like Churchill. It was a drill created by a typing instructor a century ago.) EDIT: The endorsement from the Obamas has come. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

* Speaking of Obama, can you tell that I found him a disappointment? In today's world, nuance is not an option. The education system has failed. Analytical thought is missing in action, even on elite college campuses. Netanyahu, for all that I dislike him, was correct in his speech to Congress when he likened Gays for Gaza to Chickens for KFC. We now live in a bumper sticker world in which Obama's careful attempts to walk the lines do not bear electoral fruit. Championing a law called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) cannot compete with chanting Build the Wall. At the other end of the spectrum. the 900 pages of the Affordable Care Act cannot satisfy those who advocate Medicare for All. One can wish for a better world. One can work to create a better world. But in order to do so, it's necessary to navigate the world as it exists with open eyes and effective strategies.

* Trump will get his votes. That can't be helped. The Kool-Aid has been drunk. The election will hinge on the turnout on the Democrat side. If Harris energizes women, people of color, and those whites who have resisted the Kool-Aid, even in states that are trying to make that difficult for them, she wins. Especially in states that are trying to make it difficult. Energy and enthusiasm will decide this election. Harris' task is to create that energy and enthusiasm among her constituency. Or she will lose.

PERSONAL SPACE, RACISM, AND JOE BIDEN

I live in the south of France. When the local rugby team walks into our sports bar, there's a lot of kissing. Big, sweaty, bearded guys greet other big, sweaty, bearded guys with kisses on the cheeks. Then they hang out with their arms draped over each other's shoulders.

Nature or nurture?

I was curious. I googled: Do children have personal space? The answer? Apparently not. Page upon page of results lead to that conclusion. Why? Perform the exercise yourself and you will see.

Children must apparently be carefully taught about personal space. There are exercises, worksheets, activities, and publications promoting the teaching of personal space. When it comes to explaining the necessity for personal space, though, things get a bit fuzzy. Again, google: Personal space is vital to being oneself. Being able to engage in outside interests is a good way to develop a stronger sense of self, which leads to the discovery of one's desires and dreams. This is important because it fosters trust and communication between partners.

I parse those sentences and I scratch my head. Children who ignore the concept of personal space certainly have a sense of self and often demonstrate individuality at a high level. Children who ignore the concept of personal space are certainly adept at expressing their desires. And children who ignore personal space are certainly trusting and communicative. It occurs to me that problems in these areas exist after children have been taught the concept of personal space, not because they lack that concept.

Is there such a thing as unwanted touching? Absolutely. And we teach that No Means No. In fact, the young, smart, highly educated, professional women that have singled out Joe Biden as having made them uncomfortable have probably been taught that No Means No since childhood. But they didn't say No to Joe. They chose instead to speak to a microphone. Years later. I do believe that the women may have felt uncomfortable. I also believe that Biden did nothing wrong. 

Personal space is an artificial construct. And fluid. Studies show that it is effected by gender, age, climate, social norms, and other factors. Yes. You have to be carefully taught.

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - SEPTEMBER 2015

DEMOCRATS
Hillary gets one more month. Maybe just one. Have you folks in the States heard of Jeremy Corbyn? If you are into Bernie, check it out. Is it a good thing? I don't know. But it just may be a thing after all.

There is one change to my predictions from the previous two months. Bernie has sucked up all of the air available for Elizabeth Warren at the Leftest end of the spectrum. Biden, at least for the time being, takes her spot. I don't think he'll run. Is there enough fire in the belly? We'll see.

September, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Joe Biden
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS

No changes from last month. I still find it difficult to believe that The Donald has the legs to last through the entire primary season. He's just too easily distracted. And we see some of the same interesting polling beginning to take shape on the Republican side as we saw during the last Presidential cycle. The Doctor is threatening The Donald. Could it possibly be that the Flavor of the Month Syndrome is setting in?

Huckabee? Well, like Santorum the last time, Huckabee is making a determined, all-out bid for the Christian fundamentalists. They are still a numerous slice of the base, they darn near led Santorum past Romney at the end, and therefore they are still a powerful force to be reckoned with.

And Jeb still has the name and the money and I don't see Kasich or Walker making the case that they are the stronger candidate. Maybe. We'll see.

September, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Kasich and Walker Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush