Sunday, August 16, 2015

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - AUGUST, 2015

As John Oliver has said, there will be babies born before the 2016 Presidential election whose parents haven't even met yet. (There were babies born yesterday whose parents couldn't remember each other's first names, but this isn't about hook-up culture.) So this dive into prognostication is really just an exercise for the sake of exercise. But let's take it where it leads us.

DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders is the flavor of the month on the Democratic side of the aisle. Big crowds. BIG crowds. But let's not forget that Bernie has been in politics for awhile. He didn't decide to introduce himself in cities like Charleston, Birmingham, or Baton Rouge. He went out West. If a Progressive can't draw crowds in Seattle...


In the end, I think that Bernie has plateaued. Progressives were already stirred up, ready and waiting for Elizabeth Warren. Bernie gave them a candidate to coalesce around. Will he win over moderate and conservative Democrats who are Hillary's core? Not likely. Warren might. But she's holding firm.

Biden? Gore? (Gore, for fook sake?) I just don't see it. Yes, there are folks who are getting nervous about Hillary's numbers. I'm not yet. They've been beating her and Bill up for decades. All they've got for their troubles is a blue dress and a hummer. And nobody who wasn't a card-carrying Republican gave a damn.

August, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
The Donald is soaring. Does he have the stamina? Can he withstand the months and months of pure bullcrap that will come his way and not succumb to his inner demons and implode gloriously? I just don't believe that he can. He'll declare bankruptcy, write off his expenses, and contract for a new reality show.

Since I don't believe that Trump will be the last clown out of the car, that leaves me with the same lineup as last month. Folks will hold their noses and go with Jeb unless somebody comes out of the pack who appears to be a reasonable, electable alternative. As for the rest, Santorum can't seem to get traction against Huckabee for the hearts and minds of the religious right. Perry's gone and I think Rubio, Christie, and Paul are going. Cruz is still batshit crazy. And Fiona won't last once the light shines on her. So I've whittled things down a bit at the edges, but as with the Dems, the front runner remains.

August, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Kasich and Walker Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

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