GREECE AND THE EURO - TAKE TWO

OK. Let's revue.

A couple of weeks ago, I predicted that the Europeans understood that a major portion of the Greek debt was going to have to be forgiven, that European banks would have to begin printing money if they wished to make the holders of Greek debt whole, and the Euro would hold at its floor of $1.10 or thereabouts given that such a result had already been figured into its value.

It now appears that the Germans have convinced the Troika (the EU, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund) to hold firm and require that Greek debt be honored in full by Greece by itself, that the money to do so could be squeezed out of a Greek economy that would grow in spite of harsh austerity measures imposed by the EU, and as a result of that (and other factors) the Euro has popped up by about 3% against the US dollar.

Was I wrong? No. My timing was just a bit off.

The idea that the Greek economy can grow sufficiently to pay off its debt is simply ludicrous, whether it succeeds in restructuring the public and private sectors of its economy or resorts to the practice of sacrificing virgins. The idea goes beyond ludicrous and approaches insanity...insisting that what has not worked in the past will somehow become the solution in the future. Cynically kicking the can down the road, extending the terms of bad loans to a bankrupt government that has no hope of repaying them, will only heighten the crisis. Eventually, a combination of private and government investors will have to take a hit. Given the apparent reluctance to simply write off a portion of the debt, that hit will probably be in the form of receiving their payoff in Euros of reduced value. The European Central Bank will have to print Euros, whether Merkel likes it or not.

And Portugal, Italy, and Spain are still watching. They would be the next dominoes to fall in a Europe that makes austerity the only tool that it's willing to pull out of its toolbox to counter sovereign debt. I cannot believe that Germany would be willing to see the entire Mediterranean tier of states leave the EU for the sake of adherence to the primacy of the single economic principle of austerity. (The United States has pretty much debunked the primacy of austerity with the relative success of its stimulus. In doing so, it began outgrowing Europe early on and continues to do so.)

And the Euro? I think that its current rise is temporary and related more than anything else to the retrenchment taking place in the international equities markets. Currencies have become more attractive than equities for the moment and, for those who like currencies, the Euro is cheap. But being cheap is not a strength when it comes to currencies. Exactly the opposite. The Euro is cheap because the underlying European economy is still questionable. So $1.10 remains a reasonable long-term price for the Euro.

Could par with the dollar be looming for the Euro? I wouldn't have thought so just a few weeks ago. Now, even given the Euro's current rise in value, I'm not so certain.

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - AUGUST, 2015

As John Oliver has said, there will be babies born before the 2016 Presidential election whose parents haven't even met yet. (There were babies born yesterday whose parents couldn't remember each other's first names, but this isn't about hook-up culture.) So this dive into prognostication is really just an exercise for the sake of exercise. But let's take it where it leads us.

DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders is the flavor of the month on the Democratic side of the aisle. Big crowds. BIG crowds. But let's not forget that Bernie has been in politics for awhile. He didn't decide to introduce himself in cities like Charleston, Birmingham, or Baton Rouge. He went out West. If a Progressive can't draw crowds in Seattle...


In the end, I think that Bernie has plateaued. Progressives were already stirred up, ready and waiting for Elizabeth Warren. Bernie gave them a candidate to coalesce around. Will he win over moderate and conservative Democrats who are Hillary's core? Not likely. Warren might. But she's holding firm.

Biden? Gore? (Gore, for fook sake?) I just don't see it. Yes, there are folks who are getting nervous about Hillary's numbers. I'm not yet. They've been beating her and Bill up for decades. All they've got for their troubles is a blue dress and a hummer. And nobody who wasn't a card-carrying Republican gave a damn.

August, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
The Donald is soaring. Does he have the stamina? Can he withstand the months and months of pure bullcrap that will come his way and not succumb to his inner demons and implode gloriously? I just don't believe that he can. He'll declare bankruptcy, write off his expenses, and contract for a new reality show.

Since I don't believe that Trump will be the last clown out of the car, that leaves me with the same lineup as last month. Folks will hold their noses and go with Jeb unless somebody comes out of the pack who appears to be a reasonable, electable alternative. As for the rest, Santorum can't seem to get traction against Huckabee for the hearts and minds of the religious right. Perry's gone and I think Rubio, Christie, and Paul are going. Cruz is still batshit crazy. And Fiona won't last once the light shines on her. So I've whittled things down a bit at the edges, but as with the Dems, the front runner remains.

August, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Kasich and Walker Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

#17 - NATHAN'S HOT DOGS, GREATEST SONG WRITERS, NADER ON TRUMP, THE YUAN

NATHAN'S HOT DOGS
The answer:
Nathan's hot dogs and cheap, squishy hot dog rolls. Bagels. Krispy Kreme doughnuts. Texas-style smoked ribs and brisket. Reese's Peanut Butter Cups. Crystal Hot Sauce. Twizzlers Chocolate Licorice Twists. Vita herring in sour cream.


The question:
Now that you've lived in France for over a year, what foods do you miss most?

Don't get me wrong. We have a smoker on our terrace. You can buy herring and sour cream and put them together yourself. And truth be told, you can get everything on the list delivered to your door if you are willing to pay the price.

But if you want a place to hang out for a few days while you are in the south of France, have one or two of the things on the list in your suitcase when you show up on our doorstep. We have a guest room.

GREATEST SONG WRITERS
Rolling Stone named the 100 Greatest Songwriters of All Time (emphasis mine) and it was a joke. Never mind that Bjork came in ahead of Marvin Gaye or that Jay Z beat out James Taylor. The Gershwins, Cole Porter, and Loerner and Loewe don't even appear on the list. I'm not suggesting that the list should have included Thomas Tallis. The man's been dead for over 400 years. But Stephen Sondheim was alive the last time that I checked.

Call the list the 100 Greatest Billboard Songwriters. Call it the 100 Greatest Rock and Roll, Folk and Rap Songwriters.

Call it Ferdinand. Cause it's Bull.

NADER ON TRUMP
Ralph Nader has gone on Fox and praised Trump for opening up the electoral process by threatening a third party run. It takes a billionaire, said Nader. Like Perot, said Nader. It's a good thing, said Nader.

Nader can't really see Trump and Perot as reformers. Not if he believes his own frequently repeated lament that America has become an oligarchy. Rather, I believe that he is attracted to men with egos of similar size to his own. We are fortunate that neither Perot or Nader ever seriously challenged for the Presidency and that Trump is just not serious, period.

THE YUAN
Politicians in Washington who pretend to understand these things have been calling on the Chinese to allow the yuan to float against the dollar for years. Now they are complaining that China has let the yuan float against the dollar. You see, the dollar is strong right now. That means Chinese goods are cheaper. And oh, by the way, the dollar has recently gained 20% against the euro. That means that German goods are cheaper, too. But the Germans aren't the Chinese. So we don't care about the euro, right?

Gee, this free market stuff can get complicated.

LA POSTE MARTIN'S RESTAURANT, OLONZAC - RESTAURANT REVIEW

On a recent Sunday night in August in Olonzac, English seemed to be the preferred language - Brits, Irish, and Americans jammed the Cafe de la Poste as we sat down for a glass of pink before dining in Martin's close by. It's a little jarring but who are we to complain? We are American, after all.

We chose to dine inside given the occasional sprinkle. Places were set for about twenty in the small room but the tables for two were severely undersized. By the time that a water bottle, an ice bag with wine, bread, two sets of glasses, silver, and rectangular plates were set down, the empty table next to us had to be recruited for the overflow. We were not the only party of two that found it necessary to commandeer more space.

An amusee plate of olives, an anchovy-heavy tapenade, and tiny little quiches was all good. Cathey started with an array of escargot - with garlic butter, with bleu cheese, and with ratatouille - each accompanied by a flaky pastry. Cathey's first escargot after 16 months in France and nicely done. I opted for a small ham omelet with a side salad. Fresh eggs, plain vanilla diced ham. OK. Cathey's pork with chorizo and cheese came bubbling hot. The pork was well spiced and the chorizo tasty. Cathey thought that the cheese took it over the top but I liked the taste/texture combination. My roast lamb was a bit of a disappointment - not the best cut and not interestingly spiced. It was French lamb so it was OK, but French lamb can be special. This was not.

The big rectangular plates came with two sides, both a bit mushy and nondescript, with eggplant and carrot and cheese and egg and whatever. One of the sides would have sufficed if it shown a bit more oomph. Oddly enough, our little glasses of frites were special, the best in France so far. Real slices of potato, not reconstituted, fried very hot and very quickly so they puffed.

The chocolate cake at the end was proper French dense chocolate cake.

With a demi of wine and a bit of extra service for the sole, kept-hopping waitress, 55 euros.

Don't get me wrong. The meal was worth the price. But if the objective of Martin's is to take the next step, there's a still a bit to go. Since we seldom go out to dinner, and therefore like our dinners to be special, we may not return.

Read more of my reviews HERE.

#16 - BEATLES OR STONES, HIROSHIMA, DROUGHT

BEATLES OR STONES
Keith Richards is quoted in a recent interview as saying of Sgt. Pepper, “Some people think it’s a genius album, but I think it’s a mishmash of rubbish.”

Well, the First Amendment guarantees that even elderly, slightly confused Brits have a right to their opinions. And I will not dispute that The Stones are the most enduring bar band in history. (I would cede them the title of Greatest Bar Band if it weren't for the fact that Springsteen and I are both Jersey boys.) But The Beatles were different.

The Beatles were a band that honed their skills in clubs and could hold their own with kick-butt versions of tunes like Roll Over, Beethoven and You Really Got A Hold On Me and Twist and Shout and Money. But then they went a step further. They created or heavily influenced entire genres, from acid rock to thrash metal to casino crooners. Steps further. And oddly enough, those steps included paying back their roots influences by giving folks like Stevie Wonder tunes like We Can Work It Out.

I'm glad that Keith Richards is still capable of walking and chewing gum. (Kidding. He can still lay down a fine groove, too.) But let's not get huffy over a competition for hearts and minds that was over nearly 50 years ago.

HIROSHIMA
As the 70th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima approaches, folks are questioning anew the need to have dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese homeland. Self-examination is generally a good thing. But let's be clearheaded in our review of history.

I have no doubt that history will not look kindly on the scientists who created The Bomb and Truman for having authorized its use. "I am become Death," said Oppenheimer. Einstein rued both his scientific and political contributions to Hiroshima, however peripheral. And Truman was clearly conflicted. He had experienced war first-hand and knew its horrors. His later writings suggest that he became fully aware of how Hiroshima would shape his legacy and the future of international conflict.

But Truman viewed the Japanese through the lens of Pearl Harbor and through the Japanese treatment of prisoners of war. He had been briefed extensively on the projected cost of an American invasion of the Japanese home islands, 200,000 or more American casualties. And contrary to the current narrative, no credible proof exists that the Japanese were ready to surrender unconditionally. True, feelers from dissident Japanese had been received. But they were never officially sanctioned, never included unconditional surrender - necessary after Germany's total capitulation, never panned out, and in retrospect smelled a tad like the unofficial and ill-fated mission of  Rudolf Hess to England. The official Japanese response to peace feelers at the time was to treat them with contempt. Until Hiroshima, all the evidence points to the Japanese military planning a final, if fruitless, mortal struggle on Japanese soil.

I have often said that Americans have memories equivalent to that of fruit flies. In this case, that's assuming that they've ever heard or participated in a serious discussion of this issue at all. Our young people have difficulty locating their own navels in the dark, much less islands in the Pacific. And of all academic regimens subject to periodic mass testing, history always fares the worst. So the question should not be reduced to polling that asks random Americans their opinion of whether Hiroshima was necessary. Rather, we should do our due diligence to determine whether Truman's decision was justified by the information that he had at hand in 1945.

Yes, I think that it was. And may no American President, no world leader, no sophisticated dissident with a grudge and a handful of plutonium ever be tempted to enforce his/her will in a similar way in future.

DROUGHT
In 2014, President Obama and Governor Jerry Brown visited the farm of Joe and Maria Del Bosque in California's Central Valley. Due to the persistent California drought, portions of Del Bosque's 'viable farmland' (as described in an article on Yahoo! Politics) lay fallow. Now, one year later, Del Bosque is reportedly wondering if Obama understood his problem. Why has nothing been done? Why must he refrain from planting additional fields due to lack of water for irrigation?

Putting aside for the moment the history of rampant corruption when it comes to water policy in America's West, we have in microcosm the coming major cultural upheaval that shifting weather patterns will cause around the country and around the world. The agricultural 'viability' of Del Bosque's land was predicated on the availability of water for irrigation in a part of California where that water was not naturally available through rainfall or the aquifer. Just exactly what is government supposed to do about that? What is government capable of doing about that? And what will government be able to do when seawater pollutes the freshwater aquifer in south Florida?

'Viable' farmland will no longer be viable. Expecting politicians to bring rain or deepen the snow pack is ludicrous.

#15 - CECIL THE LION, MINIMUM WAGE, SMOKEY ROBINSON - BLACK AND PROUD AMERICAN

CECIL THE LION
Trophy hunting is on the way out.

Disclaimer: I fall somewhere between those who believe that animals were put on this Earth to serve the needs of humans and those humans who believe that animals are human too. And I love cats. I REALLY love cats.


All but the most cynical and bloodthirsty hunters are conservationists. They know the lesson of the buffalo, that you can hunt seemingly endless herds to the point of extinction in a very short time. That's why there are more deer in the northeastern United States today than in the days of the Founders. We've hunted out or moved out the predators and we've managed the herds. And the 'we' are the responsible hunters who pay license fees and support wildlife management in numerous other ways. As a result, hunting for venison is alive and well. I know families who spend next to nothing on processed meat because venison provides everything from their breakfast sausage to their dinner roast. More power to them.

But trophy hunting is different. As humanity encroaches on the habitats of the predators and the prey that attract the trophy hunter, as their numbers dwindle, conservation and population management become of paramount importance. What difference does it make if a lion is within or outside the boundaries of a preserve? The reason that the preserve exists in the first place is because the lion population is threatened. And if such populations are threatened, the only reason to hunt them is to better manage them. Common sense dictates that such hunts, to thin the herds of threatened prey or to manage predation, must take place under the authority of professional wildlife managers and not private guides paid a princely sum to ensure a kill. So...

Trophy hunting is on the way out.

MINIMUM WAGE
The movement to make the minimum wage a living wage is gaining steam. Three comments:

1. I joined the workforce in the late 1960s when the federal minimum hourly wage was $1.60. If it had been tied to the inflation rate of the Consumer Price Index back then, today the minimum wage would be $10.90. If the object of creating a minimum wage is to ensure a reasonable baseline compensation for a person's labor, why is that person's labor worth 30% less today than if it had been tagged to the CPI in 1968? Give me a reason that makes sense.

2. I searched "effect of increasing the minimum wage" on the interweb. Up popped two articles published in Forbes, one a year old and one more recent. The older one was entitled The Facts On Increasing The Minimum Wage. The 'facts' were that there were so few workers making the minimum wage throughout the country that increasing the minimum wage would have a negligible effect on GDP and tax revenue. Not what I was looking for.

The more recent article purported to investigate the effect of an increase in the minimum wage to $15.00 an hour in Seattle. After establishing that only about 1,200 people were effected, the author goes on to admit that the unemployment rate in Seattle has dropped at about the same rate that the national rate has dropped since the new minimum was instituted. There's been no spike in unemployment. He goes on, however, to speak anecdotally about restaurant closings and lost job opportunities. No numbers. Just stories about favorite restaurants closing due to the wage increase. Stories that other, more liberal sites claim are disputed by the restaurateurs themselves.

So as far as I can see, we don't really know the end game yet.

3. Social media is replacing labor unions. Just sayin...

SMOKEY ROBINSON - BLACK AND PROUD AMERICAN
"If it's so terrible here, why are so many coming and so few leaving?" And the only time that he uses the word privilege is when he describes the need to exercise the privilege of the franchise.