Thursday, October 15, 2015

HANDICAPPING THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - OCTOBER 2015

DEMOCRATS
That's Lincoln Chaffee pictured on the left. Nice guy. Smart guy. Not going to happen. But he takes a nice picture.

Last month, I gave Hillary one more month at the head of the field. After the first debate, she stays there. Not that Bernie didn't do well. But he still has that accent from the Northeast. He's still a Socialist. And he's still Jewish. In a country that has just elected a black Muslim from Kenya twice, Bernie's electability has to be considered, whether that word makes you gag or not.

Last month's new wildcard, Joe Biden, remains in place but he's fading fast. Clinton avoided a major stumble in the debate. Joe's window is closing.

October, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Joe Biden
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

July, 2015
Favorite: Hillary Clinton
Long Shot: Bernie Sanders
Wild Card: Elizabeth Warren
Prediction: Hillary Clinton

REPUBLICANS
Scott Walker is gone. Flamed out. I'm not sure why. It happened a bit too quickly. I'll put on my tinfoil hat and see if I can't pick up some vibes. It's hard for me to believe that, like Boehner, his party found Walker wanting as a conservative. But even fervent followers of the predictions of Nostradamus would have difficulty finding meaning in the Republican maelstrom this cycle. And Rubio is now one of the reasonable ones?

One other change from last month. Dr. Ben has donned the Christian mantle that I thought would belong to Santorum and has instead devolved to Huckabee. I'm throwing him into the mix. Reluctantly, but he polls well. Trump? His 20% - 25% is solid but won't increase and ain't enough. Bush? He's all upside and still...STILL...has the name and the money.

October, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Mike Huckabee / Ben Carson
Wild Card: Kasich and Rubio Lead the Pack 
Prediction: Jeb Bush

July, 2015
Favorite: Jeb Bush
Long Shot: Rick Santorum / Mike Huckabee
Wild Card: Any Current/Former Republican Governor/Senator Not Named Christie or Perry
Prediction: Jeb Bush

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